![]() Also, you'll become more skilled in the process over time and will correct mistakes in your methods. ![]() As you become adept at forecasting costs and revenues, you'll be more confident about making future projections, even if not all business developments that occur are desirable.Abstract: Entrepreneurial decision-making is often characterized by unrealistic optimism. This so-called “overconfidence bias” has consequently received an increasing amount attention from the authors of literature on entrepreneurship research. Most empirical studies, however, that target the overconfidence bias have been conducted with students or samples from the general population. This study contributes to the entrepreneurial decision-making literature by explicitly targeting entrepreneurs from Austria and North Macedonia (n = 187), defined as individuals who have started their own businesses or are in the process of doing so. The entrepreneurs were asked to complete a general-knowledge questionnaire and to estimate the accuracy of their answers. The results suggest that the most of these entrepreneurs exhibit overconfidence (and some, underconfidence) with regard to the accuracy of their knowledge. According to a study published in the journal European Economic Review, optimistic thinkers who are self-employed are more likely to suffer from financial failure due to having unrealistic prospects. Significant differences were observed between the bias scores and confidence scores of the Austrian and Macedonian respondents, but not the accuracy scores. The so-called “hard-easy effect,” which indicates that individuals display overconfidence when answering hard questions, but underconfidence when answering easy questions, was observed among the Austrian but not among the Macedonian entrepreneurs.
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